The Suit and the Snake

“ A great reason for rebranding is to avoid being outdated “ Sir Richard Branson.

It was not just the big corporations that took this famous quote to heart and proactively rebranded their organization’s brand image. A Syrian-born terrorist boss known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani executed one of the most infamous rebrandings of our times. Leading Jabhat al-Nusra, an al-Qaeda affiliate during the Syrian civil war, he quickly realized the importance of branding his terror outfit as Jabhat Fatah al-Sham to survive the powerful state actors from Russia to the USA who hated everything even a decimeter close to al-Qaeda. When his terrorist organization was listed on the proscribed list of transnational terrorist entities, he went for another rebranding. This time he chose a user-friendly, innocently sounding acronym ‘HTS’. Those letters stand for ‘Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham’ or ‘Organization for the Liberation of the Levant’.

Whatever the objective of Liberating the Levant meant for al-Jolani, his preferred methodology was nothing but armed violence directed against a state, a group, a religious minority, and the very idea of freedom. Unlike the previous times, Jolani was not alone in the last rebranding. Syria-based Salafi-jihadist terror groups such as Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zinki, Liwa al-Haq, Jaysh al-Sunna, and Jabhat Ansar al-Din became the wingmen of al-Jolani. True to the promise of the very concept of rebranding, his efforts paid their dues. al-Jolani managed to avoid the spotlight and survived another day while all his Jihadi colleagues were sent to where any evil man would be sent to by the Syrian, Iranian, Russian, and American forces in the Syrian war. 

From being a merciless Jihadi hailing from the notorious al-Qaeda, whose purpose of beheading every living thing that opposes your extremist idea to becoming a ‘Jihadi light’ where state intelligence apparatus tolerated your existence was a success story for Jolani’s HTS. He was even given media coverage and portrayed a picture of a moderate rebel who fought for the liberation of oppressed Syrian people. If only those who were brutally murdered by him and his terror factor could speak!

The Betrayal and the Red Carpet

With the tacit support of the western media and the Turkish spin doctors, Jolani had a resounding PR victory followed by a collapse of the Syrian Army he finally achieved his goals. He tore apart the fragile agreement known as the ASTANA format between Russia, Iran, and Turkey, which guaranteed the peace and stability of Syria, and along with tens of other organizations, he marched on the Syrian government-held areas capturing city after city, finally emerging its head of state.

This is where the hypocrisy of the geopolitical currents reaches its zenith and where the narrative becomes a hideous betrayal of the dead. The very nations that spent endless blood and treasure, shedding the lives of their soldiers, both from the Kremlin and the White House, pursuing the endless goal to kill the leadership of Al-Qaeda and its affiliates, are now, through a tacit geopolitical convenience, laying red carpets for the man who was once at the top of their kill-list. This rebranded terrorist, who still commands an organization responsible for untold sectarian violence, has successfully positioned himself as a necessary counterweight to Bashar Al-Assad.

This open acceptance and rebranding have effectively positioned Jolani as a convenient chess piece, easy to make deals with, and currently useful for the geopolitical objectives of certain state actors.How long will he last ? As long as he remains useful and the interests of various actors are preserved. The first sign of change of heart will be the beginning or end of the snake in suit. There have been many before him who were crowned, protected, pride and thrown under the bus when they became a spent force. That is the brutality of political realism. A pawn is always a pawn meant to be sacrificed. 

The Pause, Not the Solution: An Earthquake to Come

It is vital to understand that this strategic tolerance is merely a pause, not a solution. It will not, by necessity, address the fundamental, deepest Syrian divisions that have fuelled this inferno. Jolani’s success and his temporary diplomatic convenience are built on a bedrock of ethnic and sectarian hatred that promises future conflict:

The Alawites, facing a sudden and existential threat after a generation of dominance, will not forget the massacres, nor will they accept this new status quo. They will wait for their opportunity; regroup, amass resources, rearm, and  will come for their blood. When they do, the very same states laying red carpets to Jolani will arm and funnel the funds to dispose of Jolani, backing them to the hilt as it was always their agenda. 

Likewise, a humiliated Iran, a master of strategic patience, will not accept a permanent loss of influence. Once its deterrence capabilities are restored, Tehran will surely seek the destabilization of this new, Turkish-backed reality. For now it’s licking the wounds of losing some invaluable regional allies from Bashar -al Asad to Hassan Nasrallah. As much as the current status quo seems challenging, there could emerge just the perfect partners and opportunities for Iran in its long march. Perhaps more useful and brutal than the ones before. This is the case of Lavant. A land whose history has been written in blood and betrayals. 

This entire edifice of convenience rests precariously on the shifting political sands of Turkey. A shock defeat for the ruling AKP party could unravel these deepest divisions in Syria in a matter of a single night, stripping Al-Jolani of his critical patron and immediately re-igniting the conflict’s sectarian core. This tactical acceptance of a reformed terrorist is nothing more than a temporary fix to a profound, existential fissure. What might come next will not be a ripple; it will be an earthquake. But for now, the geopolitical establishment is content to welcome the terrorist as he wears suits.